[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices changed relatively small on May 22, with the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction being the worst in five years

SMM Nickel News on May 21:

Macro News:

(1) On Wednesday local time, the US Treasury Department auctioned off $16 billion in 20-year Treasury bonds. This latest auction was one of the worst-performing for this maturity since its introduction five years ago. The final winning yield for this auction was 5.047%, marking the second time that the yield for a 20-year Treasury bond auction has exceeded the 5% threshold. This winning yield was 24 basis points higher than the 4.810% recorded in April. The auction's winning yield was approximately 1.2 basis points higher than the pre-issue rate of 5.035%, representing the largest tail spread since December last year. Following the auction results, US stocks, Treasury bonds, and Bitcoin all fell.

(2) According to foreign media reports, the EU is expected to share a revised trade proposal with the US, aiming to inject momentum into negotiations with the Trump administration, amid ongoing skepticism about the possibility of reaching a transatlantic agreement. According to sources familiar with the matter, the new document includes proposals that consider US interests, including international labor rights, environmental standards, economic security, and a gradual reduction of tariffs to zero on non-sensitive agricultural and industrial products from both sides. The sources said that the document, which was submitted to officials in Washington earlier this week, also outlines mutual investments and strategic procurement in the fields of energy, artificial intelligence, and digital connectivity. The EU aims to cooperate with the US and seek a balanced and mutually beneficial agreement, according to the sources. One of the sources said that the two sides are still studying each other, and the European Commission may need authorization from member states to begin formal negotiations. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: He hopes to reach trade agreements with most major partners before the tariff suspension expires this summer.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranges from 123,400 to 125,600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 124,500 yuan/mt, a decrease of 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for the mainstream spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,000-2,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,100 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The premiums and discounts quotation range for Russian nickel is 100-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 200 yuan/mt, also unchanged from the previous trading day.

Recently, trading in the spot market has been mediocre, with most quotations remaining stable.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2506) continued its fluctuating trend, with no significant volatility during the session. As of 11:30, the closing price was 123,370 yuan/mt, up 0.01%. In terms of inventory, as of May 21, LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 mt to 201,786 mt on a single-day basis.

Currently, nickel prices are mainly influenced by "intensified policy disruptions and deepened supply-demand imbalance", maintaining a fluctuating trend in the short term, with a support level at 122,000 yuan/mt and a resistance level at 128,000 yuan/mt; the medium and long-term trend is weak.